Wind Energy Planning

A recent Wind Power report by the Energy Watch Group claims that the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts for world -wide wind energy capacity have been significantly underestimated.

The report points to the IEA’s 2002 forecast predicting 104 GW wind energy by 2020 noting that it was exceeded in real terms in summer 2008. Questions are raised about the methods used for calculating figures used by the IEA particularly at a time when the prices of fossil fuels and nuclear fuels were rising so rapidly.

Criticism is levied at the IEA being ‘attached to oil, gas and nuclear’ and predictions for oil prices are noted in the report as conversely lower at $60 per barrel by 2030 ‘when in fact a price of $50-$150 per barrel is more realistic for 2008, let alone 2030′.

‘Transnational companies such as general Electric, Siemens, Areva, Alstom and Suzlon have entered the booming industry and, by 2008 all have established divisions for wind power. Additionally numerous Chinese companies are entering the sector.’

Wind Power Monthly magazine predicts that the wind and solar sector will grow at an annual rate of around 15% in a moderate growth scenario resulting in 10,406 GW capacity in 2040.